Currently, 0.1 solana to usd is approximately 13.5 US dollars (calculated based on the unit price of SOL at 135 US dollars), and its growth potential requires a comprehensive assessment of multiple variables. Historical data provides a reference: During the bull market cycle of 2021, Solana soared from $1.5 at the end of 2020 to a peak of $259, achieving a return rate of over 17,000% within 17 months. If calculated on the same scale, 0.1 solana to usd could break through $25 in the next bull market. However, it should be noted that the previous sharp rise was related to the unique technological dividend. Although the price of SOL rebounded by 1,500% from the bear market low of $8 in 2023, it is still discounted by 48% compared to the historical high, reflecting that the market recovery is not yet sufficient.
Ecological expansion is the core driving force. Solana’s total value locked in DeFi (TVL) soared from $210 million at the beginning of 2023 to $4.8 billion in mid-2024, with a growth rate of 2,185%. The average daily trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) remained within the range of $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion. It accounts for more than 25% of the total market share of DEX. Key applications such as the Jupiter aggregator have a monthly transaction volume exceeding 5 billion US dollars, and the Pyth oracle covers 280 blockchain networks, providing data on over 400 types of assets. These infrastructures have driven the continuous growth of developer activities. In Q1 2024, the number of newly deployed smart contracts increased by 140% year-on-year, and the number of active DApp addresses exceeded 1.2 million per day. If this growth rate remains above 30%, it will provide substantial support for prices.
Technological innovation directly reduces costs and enhances experience. In 2023, the testnet of the Firedancer client was launched, capable of processing 1.2 million transactions per second (TPS), a 400-fold increase from the 3,000 TPS of the mainnet at that time. The transaction confirmation latency was reduced from 2 seconds to 400 milliseconds. Meanwhile, the state compression technology has reduced the NFT minting cost from $25 to $0.0005, a decrease of 99.998%. This has driven Solana’s monthly NFT trading volume to exceed $500 million in April 2024, surpassing Ethereum to rank first on the entire network. The sales of modular blockchain Saga mobile phones soared by 600% in 2023. The APR yield of SOL obtained by users through staking reached 37%, and the hardware and token economy formed a positive cycle in synergy.
The market cycle is closely related to the trend of capital flow. The cryptocurrency market is highly cyclical. The Bitcoin halving event (scheduled to be completed in April 2024) often triggers an Altcoin bull market 12 to 18 months later. In the two cycles of 2017 and 2021, the price multiples of SOL relative to BTC increased by 50 times and 80 times respectively. The current SOL/BTC exchange rate is at 0.0018, 57% lower than the historical high of 0.0042, indicating potential for catch-up gains. In terms of institutional funds, Solana funds saw a net inflow of 870 million US dollars in Q1 2024, accounting for 21% of the total inflow of cryptocurrency funds during the same period. The spillover effect brought by the US spot Bitcoin ETF may amplify such funds by 2 to 3 times.
Improved liquidity reduces the risk of volatility. The FTX collapse in 2023 led to a daily selling pressure of 28 million US dollars on SOL, with its price plummeting by 60% in a single week. However, by mid-2024, the CEX reserve proof shows that the SOL exchange’s outstanding volume has dropped to 12% of the circulating volume, which is safer than the dangerous threshold of 20%. The daily open interest of futures contracts has remained stable at 1.8 billion US dollars, and the long-short position ratio has been maintained within the healthy range of 1.05 to 1.15. The concentration of market makers has decreased significantly. The proportion of positions held by Jump Trading has shrunk from 40% to 12%, reducing the risk of single manipulation. After the launch of SOL futures contracts on Coinbase’s derivatives platform, the proportion of institutional holdings increased by 15% month-on-month.
Regulation and competition constitute uncertainty. In the lawsuit against Coinbase, the SEC listed SOL as an unregistered security. Despite the Solana Foundation submitting a 215-page legal argument to refute it, the litigation period usually lasts 18 to 24 months. Positive signals come from the EU’s MiCA regulation classifying SOL as a utility token. The trading volume of SOL on Asian markets such as India’s ZebPay exchange has increased by 65% quarterly. The threat from competitors cannot be ignored – the total TVL of Ethereum Layer2 increased by 320% to 45 billion US dollars in 2023, and Polygon attracted 7% of the developers in the Solana ecosystem to migrate through CDK technology. If Solana network outages occur repeatedly (with a cumulative outage duration exceeding 150 hours in 2022), it may lead to user attrition.
Conclusive calculation: Based on the Bloomberg Industry Research model, under the base scenario (Bitcoin rises to $150,000), SOL has a 55% probability of breaking through $750, corresponding to 0.1 solana to usd reaching $75, with a potential return rate of 455%. Key observation indicators include: the ecological TVL needs to exceed 80 billion US dollars (with an annual growth rate of 100%), the daily active users of Dapps exceed 5 million (currently 1.2 million), and the average annual network downtime should be reduced to less than 10 hours. The probability of achieving the goal by the end of 2025 is approximately 45%. Investors can allocate no more than 15% of their crypto asset portfolios to participate in this risk-reward opportunity.